La macroéconomie après la crise

Olivier Blanchard en réécrivant son manuel de macroéconomie s’est penché sur la façon dont la crise a modifié l’approche de l’analyse de court terme. Le texte est ci-dessous. Il est très instructif

How to Teach Intermediate Macroeconomics after the Crisis?

June 2, 2016 2:15 PM

Having just concluded a seven-year run as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and having to rewrite the seventh edition of my undergraduate macroeconomics book (link is external) , I had to confront the issue: How should we teach macroeconomics to undergraduates after the crisis? Here are some of my conclusions (I shall focus here on the short and medium runs; it will take another blog to discuss how we should teach growth theory).

The Investment-Saving (IS) Relation

The IS relation remains the key to understanding short-run movements in output. In the short run, the demand for goods determines the level of output. A desire by people to save more leads to a decrease in demand and, in turn, a decrease in output. Except in exceptional circumstances, the same is true of fiscal consolidation.

I was struck by how many times during the crisis I had to explain the “paradox of saving” and fight the Hoover-German line, “Reduce your budget deficit, keep your house in order, and don’t worry, the economy will be in good shape.” Anybody who argues along these lines must explain how it is consistent with the IS relation.

Lire la suite ici

Martin Anota, que je vous recommande de suivre sur Twitter (@martin_anota), a fait une traduction partielle de ce texte de Blanchard – Voir ici

Blanchard: Looking Forward, Looking Back

Interview d’Olivier Blanchard – Bilan de ses années à la tête de la recherche économique du FMI

Olivier Blanchard will step down as Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Research Department at the end of September.

He will join the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October as the first C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, a post named for the founder of the influential 35-year-old, Washington-based think tank.

When French-born Blanchard, a former chairman of the economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, joined the IMF on September 1, 2008, little did he realize that he would be at the center of a global economic storm. Two weeks later, Lehman Brother’s bank collapsed, marking what many consider the start of the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

“The crisis was a traumatic event during which we all had to question many cherished beliefs,” said Blanchard. This included questioning various assumptions on the role of fiscal policy, including the size of fiscal multipliers, the use of unconventional monetary policy measures and macroprudential tools, capital flows and measures to control them, labor market policies and the role of micro and macro flexibility. “And being in a position to question gave me the opportunity to make a difference,” he said.

Blanchard says he now wants to take the time to research fewer issues more intensely.

“For the past seven years, he says “I’ve been answering a thousand questions, but not in a very deep way. I want to take ten of these thousand questions and answer them more deeply.” One of the issues he plans to examine is the various measures countries can use to control and mold capital flows.

IMF Survey interviewed Blanchard about global economic issues, the IMF’s role in furthering economic and financial stability, and what is was like to be in the hot-seat job of chief economist.

IMF Survey: You have at times pushed the envelope of IMF thinking and policy positions. How has this been received inside and outside the IMF? Lire la suite